Lebanon, Iran, and Reality

Is Lebanon the Great Unravelling?

by William Bowles • Friday, 28 July, 2006

‘We are farmers, we can fall back on the land, hide in caves, make our own cheese and eat our lambs. The Israelis in their bunkers, this life upsets them. They will quit.’ — Mohammed Mulimh, 29, a Lebanese farmer

We tend to assume that governments, regardless of whether we agree with their policies or not, operate on the basis of a rational analysis of the situation, but I think it’s pretty obvious by now that this is not the case. Plans and objectives are all well and good but they need to be based in the real world of what is realisable. Gamblers still need to weigh the odds.

Thus I contend that the Lebanese ‘adventure’ is a sign of increasing desperation on the part of the Wolves. Some on the left (and not so left) contend that this is a portent of a coming invasion/attack on Iran but again, I caution against this interpretation, not that ‘taking out’ Iran isn’t an objective, the question is, is it a realistic objective?

But how is it to be realised short of nuking the country? Invasion is obviously out of the question in spite of all the ominous talk (fight the ‘war on terror’ on four fronts?). What it does reveal I think, is the bankruptcy of the ‘war on terror’ as a sustainable basis for a foreign policy. Once again, it reveals that the power elite have fooled themselves into confusing propaganda with real policies and real situations.