The Plural of Scenario

I'm looking at an electoral vote scenario that seems very likely to me--and it's a tie. Kerry takes the West, including Nevada, the Great Lakes states and Iowa, and the Northeast. Plus New Mexico. Bush gets all the rest.

This is really a worst-case scenario. Kerry can win in Ohio, Florida and Colorado. The odds are he'll win in at least one of them. There are several border states (Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri) and a couple of western states (Colorado, Arizona) where Kerry was doing well before the swiftboat veterans from the Let's Kill 'Em All wing of the military scurrilously slandered him, and voters could swing back to Kerry. The more people see him the more highly they will regard him. He's a person of genuine integrity, and he also has the clear-eyed ability to confront the real world in all its awfulness and glory and do what is sensible for the sake of being able to work to improve it.

Last night we went to see the new documentary about his experiences in Vietnam and with the Vietnam Veterans Against the War. Going Upriver: The Long War of John Kerry at the Westside Pavilion, which was almost deserted. I fell in love with the beautiful child he was, and with the knight-errant he became.

And Bush? Does he like to play with very big guns? He is capable of charming people. He is very dangerous.